September 28, 2022

Which of the three Triple Crown events is more profitable for bettors?

The US Triple Crown series racing make up some of the biggest betting heats in the world of horse racing. The series sees a total fund of $5 million handed out to winning connections annually, while it is reported that over $300 million is wagered each year across the Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes and Preakness Stakes. 

All races are historic in their own right, with the Churchill Downs opener considered by many as the biggest of the three that takes place in the United States. But, which of the three races is the most profitable for bettors?

Kentucky Derby 

There are few races that are able to compare to the Kentucky Derby, as the opening leg of the Triple Crown series sees the top 20 scorers on the road to the Kentucky Derby line up in the prestigious race. Unlike the following two Triple Crown races, as well as skill, winning the Derby also revolves around a certain element of luck. Runners will need a clean break from the start, and also a favourable draw to make an impression. 

Betting on the race has been very profitable in recent years, with 12/1 and 30/1 winners in the form of Mandaloun and Country House. Meanwhile, only one favourite has won the race in the past five years, as Justify won at odds of 3/1 in 2018. Sportsbooks also offer more value to bettors when it comes to the opening Triple Crown race, as they typically offer more places, which means that value can be found on the outsiders. 

Preakness Stakes

The middle leg of the Triple Crown series is very often the most difficult to find the winner. Bettors often have to pose themselves the questions of siding with a horse that lined up in the Kentucky Derby or taking a horse that will come into the race much fresher having missed in the race at Churchill Downs. 

Last year, three runners from the Kentucky Derby travelled to Pimlico to compete in the Preakness Stakes, with the closest contender being Midnight Bourbon, who finished second.  

However, the winner of the race last year was Rombauer at odds of 12/1. The race hasn’t been won by a favourite in the past three years, with Swiss Skydiver and War of Will winning the race in their respective years at odds of 6/1 and 4/1. The only winning favourite in the past six editions was Justify in 2018. 

You can find the 2022 Preakness Stakes odds by TwinSpires.com here.

Belmont Stakes

The final Triple Crown race of the American season takes place at Belmont in June, as the Belmont Stakes is staged

This is seen by many as the most tactical of the season in the Triple Crown series, as jockeys must ensure that they put their horse into the best position to make a challenge in the final stages. However, it hasn’t been the most profitable for bettors throughout its recent history.

Three of the past four editions of the race have been won by the clear favourites in the betting, including in 2021 when Essential Quality won at odds of 2/1. Tiz The Law also continued this trend in 2020 when winning at 6/5, while Justify won at 4/5 to win his Triple Crown title in 2018. 

The biggest priced winner of the race in the past four years came in 2019, as Sir Winston won at odds of 12/1 for trainer Mark Casse. 

Tacitus had been the favourite for the race at 9/5, but he could only finish second. The recent trends certainly indicate that it may pay to stick with the favourite when it comes to the Belmont Stakes. 

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